Asen S. Kochov

 

Ph.D. Candidate,
University
of Rochester
,
Department of Economics
akochov@mail.rochester.edu

Research Interests:
Microeconomic Theory, Decision Theory

RESEARCH

Abstract: The paper models an individual who may not foresee all relevant aspects of an uncertain environment. The model is axiomatic and provides a novel choice-theoretic characterization of the subalgebra of foreseen events. It is proved that all recursive, consequentialist models imply perfect foresight and thus cannot accommodate unforeseen contingencies. In particular, the model is observationally distinct from recursive models of ambiguity. The process of learning implied by dynamic behavior generalizes the Bayesian model and permits the subalgebra of foreseen events to expand over time.

Abstract: A central theme in behavioral economics focuses on experimental evidence that individuals learn from the choice problems they face and consequently violate the consistency requirements of revealed preference theory. Despite the experimental evidence, the testable implications of such contextual inference remain unclear. In particular, it is an open question if learning from the choice problem imposes any restrictions on observed behavior. Motivated by the Shafir and Tversky [18] experiments, this paper models contextual inference in the framework of preference for flexibility introduced by Kreps [10] and extended by Dekel, Lipman, and Rustichini [4]. Within this framework, the paper proposes a relaxation of the weak axiom which formalizes the identification strategy in Shafir and Tversky [18]. A subjective state space that may depend on the subset of actions faced by the individual is uniquely identified from behavior, and local preferences are partially recovered. 

 

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