PSC Empirical Data Analysis

Overview: This course offers an introduction to empirical research methods in political science. By the end of the semester, students should have a better acquaintance with the type of empirical work done by most political scientists (and other social scientist) and the ability to understand and critique it.

Readings are from the following books:

Required:

Phillip H. Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis (2005, 2^nd Ed., CQ Press, Washington, D.C.)
Phillip H. Pollock, An SPSS Companion to Political Analysis (2005, 2^nd Ed., CQ Press, Washington, D.C.)
Paul D. Allison, Multiple Regression: A Primer (1999, Pine Forge Press, Thousand Oaks, CA.)

On library reserve for reference:

Alan Agresti and Barbara Finlay. 1997. Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences, 3^rd edition. Prentice Hall.
John Fox, Regression Diagnostics (1991, Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA)

Grading: Grades will be based on three in-class exams, multiple data analysis exercises, several brief homework assignments, and a final data analysis/paper. Unless otherwise indicated, each assignment is due one week from the day it is assigned. Assignments must be turned in on paper (not emailed) and properly formatted. Grades will be weighted as follows: exams 15% each; data analyses and homework assignments 30% (collectively); final data analysis/paper 15%; participation in weekly labs 10%. The lowest grade on a homework or data analysis assignment will be dropped with no questions asked. Use this privilege wisely; it is intended for unforeseen circumstances, accidents, and illnesses. Late assignments are downgraded by one grade level for each day they are late, e.g. B+ to B and will not be accepted after seven days. Students are responsible for delivering their homework, in hardcopy, to the TA. Emailed attachments will not be accepted. Grade appeals should be submitted to the appropriate TA as a type-written memo specifying the question(s) in doubt and grounds for the appeal.

Make-up Exams: Students are expected to take all exams at the announced times. A single make-up exam will be scheduled for students with documented extenuating circumstances such as personal illness requiring medical attention. Athletes whose competition schedule prevents them from taking an exam should arrange for their coaches to administer the exam. Undocumented absences earn a zero.

Recitations: The teaching assistant will hold weekly recitations in computer labs to reinforce concepts from the class, assist with software questions, review homework, and provide general guidance. Attendance is mandatory.

Readings: The readings are shown below. Readings not from the class texts are available on JSTOR (www.jstor.org) or via hyperlink from the online version of this syllabus (http://mail.rochester.edu/~mksr/PSC200.html). They are provided as an example of how the methods you are learning are used in actual research. Please be sure to read them before class. The review problems at the end of each chapter in Pollock are very helpful and may occasionally be assigned as homework. You may wish to do them regardless of whether they are assigned. The Agresti and Finlay book on reserve in the library is a good supplementary resource.

Software: We use SPSS for the most of our computer based analysis in this class. The menu-driven interface of this package makes it appealing for students gaining their first introduction to data analysis. If you have data analytic ambitions that extend beyond this class, you will probably notice many of the shortcomings of SPSS for intensive users. In such a case, you might want to consider programs such as STATA (fast) and R (flexible and free). Both your professor and TA are happy to support you in your use of these other packages.

Academic Honesty: None of the assignments in this class are collaborative. I encourage you to study together and learn to use the software together. Assignments, however, are expected to represent your individual effort. Copied or plagiarized work will incur penalties consistent with the College’s policy on academic honesty (http://www.rochester.edu/College/honesty/).

Syllabus: This syllabus may be altered during the semester to accommodate the learning pace of the class. It is the students’ responsibility to keep abreast of assignments and due dates by attending class monitoring the class website (http://mail.rochester.edu/~mksr/PSC200.html). I often post lecture notes online.

COURSE SCHEDULE:

Week 1. Introduction

Week 2. Concepts and Measurement

Readings:

Essentials, Ch.1

Supplemental:

Erikson, Robert S., Norman R. Luttbeg, and Kent L. Tedin. 1991. American Public Opinion. 4^th ed:10-13
Fiorina, Morris. Congress: Keystone of the Washington Establishment. Ch.1.
Agresti & Finlay Ch. 1

Homework 1 (assigned in class)

Week 3-1. Descriptive Statistics

Readings:

SPSS, Introduction, Ch.1, 2

Supplemental:

Grofman, Koetzle, and McGann. 2002. “Congressional Leaders 1965-96: A New Look at the Extremism Versus Centrality Debate.” LSQ 2002
Jacobson, Gary. 1987. The Marginals Never Vanished: Incumbency and Competition in Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, 1952-82. AJPS. 31(1):126-141.
Agresti & Finlay, Ch. 3

Week 3-2. Constructing Variables

Readings:

SPSS, Ch. 4

Supplemental:

Wooley, John T. 2000. “Using Media-Based Data in Studies of Politics.” AJPS. 44(1):156-173.
Abramson, Paul R. and Ada W. Finifer. 1981. “On the meaning of Political Trust: New Evidence from Items Introduced in 1978.” AJPS. 25(2):297-307.

1^st Data Analysis. This assignment will be described in detail in class.

Week 4-1. Forming Hypotheses

Readings:

Essentials, Ch.2, pp. 28-37

Supplemental:

Ansolabehere, Stephen, Shanto Iyengar, Adam Simon and Nicholas Valentino. 1994. Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?” APSR. 88(4):829-838.

Week 4-2. Research Design: Experiments and Controlled Comparisons

Readings:

Essentials, Ch. 2, pp. 37-47

Supplemental:

Campbell and Stanley, Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research, Chicago: Rand McNally College Publishing Co. 1963.

Homework 2 (assigned in class)

Week 5-1. In-Class Review

Week 5-2. Exam 1

Week 6-1. Assessing Hypotheses: Crosstabs & Means

Readings:

SPSS, Ch. 3
Essentials, Ch. 3

Supplemental:

Wilcox, Clyde. 1987. “The Timing of Strategic Decisions: Candidacy Decisions in 1982 and 1984.” LSQ. 12(4):565-572
Glazer, Amihai and Bernard Grofman. 1987. “Two plus Two Plus Two Equals Six: Tenure in Office of Senators and Representatives, 1953-1983.” LSQ. 12(4):555-563.

Week 6-2. Controlling for a Third Variable

Readings:

SPSS, Ch. 5
Essentials, Ch. 4.

Supplemental:

Kritzer, Herbert M. and Robert B. Eubank. 1979. “Presidential Coattails Revisited: Partisanship and Incumbency Effects.” AJPS. 23(3):615-626.

2nd Data Analysis assigned in class.

Week 7-1. z distributions, Confidence Intervals and Inference

Readings:

Essentials, Ch. 5

Supplemental:

Erikson, Robert S., Norman R. Luttbeg, and Kent L. Tedin. 1991. American Public Opinion. 4^th ed. Ch. 2 & 3, pp. 19-42, 43-78.
Benson, John M.. 2001. “Heard Enough.” Public Perspective. Sep/Oct.

Week 7-2. t distributions and Inference with Sample Proportions

Readings:

SPSS, Ch. 6

Supplemental:

Ethridge, Marcus E. 1990. The Political Research Experience: Readings and Analysis. Ch. 5, pp. 89-96.
Agresti & Finlay Ch 4 & 5.

Homework 2 assigned in class

Week 8-1. Review of Statistical Inference & Probability Distributions

Week 8-2. Tests of Significance

Readings:

Essentials, Ch. 6, pp.130-144. (skip 145-51).

Supplemental:

Payne, James. 1982. “Career Intentions and Electoral Performance of Members of the U. S. House.” LSQ. 7(1):93-99.
Agresti & Finlay, Ch. 6.

Week 9-1. In-Class Review

Week 9-2. Exam 2

10-1. Proportional Reduction of Error & Chi-sq tests

Readings:

Essentials, Ch. 7, pp. 144-50 (focus on Lambda), pp. 154-57
SPSS, Ch. 8, pp.133-41

Supplemental:

Agresti & Finlay Ch. 9
Licklider, Roy. 1995. The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993. American Political Science Review 89.3: 681-90.

Week 10-2. Correlation and Bivariate Regression

Readings:

Essentials, Ch. 7, pp. 157-162.
SPSS, Ch. 8, pp. 141-148.

Holmes, Peter. 2001. Correlation: From Picture to Formula. Teaching Statistics 23.3: 67-71.
Duggan & Levitt. 2002. “Winning Isn’t Everything: Corruption in Sumo Wrestling” American Economic Review 92(5), 1594-1605.
Tufte, Edward. 1973. “The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems.” APSR. 67(2):540-554
Lewis-Beck, Michael and Tom W. Rice. 1983. “Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage.” AJPS. 27(3):548-556.
Lewis-Beck, Michael and Tom W. Rice. 1982. Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote. POQ. 46(4):534-537.

3^rd Data Analysis: assigned in class.

Week 11-1. Measures of Fit

Readings:

SPSS, Ch. 8, pp.141-148 (review);
Essentials, Ch. 7, pp. 163-168

Supplemental:

Gibson, James L. 2002. Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation: Judging the Fairness of Amnesty in South Africa. American Journal of Political Science 46.3: 540-56.

Week 11-2. No Class

Week 12-1: Introduction to Multiple Regression

Readings:

SPSS Ch. 9, pp.155-165
Agresti and Finlay, Ch. 11
Essentials, Ch 7, 168-170,

Supplemental:

Duggan, Mark. “More Guns, More Crime.” Journal of Political Economy 2001.

Final Data Analysis: Multiple Regression. Assignment will be handed out in class.

Week 12-2: OLS Assumptions

Readings:

Agresti and Finlay Ch. 9.6
Allison Ch. 6

Week 13-1. Influential Observations

Readings:

SPSS, Ch. 9, pp.160-170
Essentials, Ch. 7, pp.170-174
Agresti and Finlay, Ch. 11.5, Ch. 14.2
Fox Ch. 4

Supplemental:

Hibbing, John R. and Sara L. Brandes. 1983. “State Population and the Electoral Success of U. S. Senators.” AJPS. 27(4):808-819.
Campbell, James R. 1986. “Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails.” AJPS. 30(1):165-183.

Week 13-2. Multicollinearity

Readings:

Essential 174-175 (MC)
Agresti and Finlay, Ch. 14.3
Allision 7
Fox Ch. 3

Week 14-1. Model Specification

Allison Ch 3.1-3.2, 3.6, 8.6-8.7

Week 14-2. Non-linear Regression

Allison Ch. 8
Fox Ch. 7

Supplemental:

Rogowski, Kayser, Kotin. 1999. How Geographical Concentration Affects Industrial Influence: Evidence from US Data.

Week 15-1. In Class Review

Week 15-2. Exam 3

Final Data Analysis Due after Exam 3. Due date will be announced in class.

Does globalization shrink or expand the welfare state? You will evaluate the empirical support for both the efficiency (shrinking state) and compensation (expanding state) hypotheses.